ANALYSIS: People always say the election impacts the property market.

But is it actually true?

I dug into property market data from the past nine elections and here’s what I found.

Yes, the data suggests that the brakes are on the housing market in the lead-up to a general election, with Kiwis buying 12% more properties after poll day compared to before.

Looking at 12 months before and 12 months after, we can see the pull back in buying activity tends to happen 10 months ahead the election, and that there is a massive upswing three months after, as Kiwis return to the housing market.

In the above data, I’ve excluded the 2020 election. That’s because we’d just come out of Covid, and the property market had an enormous boom, which probably doesn’t give us a clear view of the trend.

So, let’s look at another election to see how much impact it had on buyers and sellers.

Of all the elections I’ve seen, 2023’s feels a lot like 2008’s. Back then the country was in recession property prices had been falling rapidly. Sound familiar? So, what happened back then?

Twelve months out from the election, people were still buying lots of properties but as we got closer to the poll date, the market plunged as Kiwis stopped buying. After the election, however, there was an uptick in house sales, although some of this swing can be attributed the traditional market cycle.

The next question is: do property sales take off more when National wins an election?

That’s what the data says. When Labour was victorious in the polls, there was a slight increase in post-election property sales but the bump is a lot bigger when National wins.

While this graph contains 20 years of property market data, that’s only 10 elections – five won by Labour, five won by National – so, it’s a small sample size, which makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions.

Still, the trend is clear: when governments change, property sales are likely to likely increase, although more sales does not necessarily mean an immediate lift in prices, which tend to increase over time.

But what about house prices? Do they go up after an election?

So, if you look 12 months on either side of an election, you’re looking at two years. If you do this for nine elections, you’re crunching 18 years of house price data.

Property prices tend to go up by 6–7% a year, so, it’s no wonder that property prices are usually 6% lower before the election and 6% higher after the election (on average).

The most interesting point is that property prices (on average) don’t go down right before the election.

The average Joe doesn’t like buying properties before an election. They like to wait, just to “see what happens”. They feel nervous about making a large financial decision. That makes sense when the country’s direction is uncertain.

But as the election result sinks in, people feel more confident as they get to grips with the new government and new policies, which means there is a natural bounce after the pull-back directly before the election.

One thing seems certain: it’ll be harder to buy a house after the election, as we’ve heard plenty of people say: “I’m going to wait to buy until after the election.”

More people will enter the market once officials have counted the votes, which means the longer buyers wait till, the greater the competition they’ll face.

Credit: Oneroof

Are You Thinking of Selling Your Auckland Property? Get a FREE Property Appraisal from Shaan Joshi

Are You Thinking of Selling Your Auckland Property? Get a FREE Property Appraisal from Shaan Joshi

Are you contemplating selling your Auckland property? The process of selling a property can be overwhelming, leaving you with questions about its market value and effective marketing strategies. Luckily, there’s good news for you! Shaan Joshi, a seasoned real estate agent and expert in the Auckland market, is offering FREE property appraisals to property owners like you.

Unlock the potential of your property with a free appraisal from Shaan Joshi. This unique opportunity allows you to gain valuable insights into your property’s current market value and offers a clearer understanding of its worth, free of charge.

Whether you are a first-time seller or an experienced property owner, understanding the market dynamics and choosing a method to create competition is crucial for a successful sale. Shaan Joshi’s wealth of experience in the real estate industry makes him the perfect partner to guide you through this process.

Selling a property can be a daunting task, particularly if you’re unsure where to begin. It’s natural to feel overwhelmed, considering the myriad of factors involved in the sale process. Questions like “How much is my property worth?” and “How can I effectively market it?” might be keeping you up at night.

Without expert guidance, determining the accurate market value of your property and devising an effective marketing strategy can seem like a herculean task. Many property owners find themselves lost in the sea of information available online, making it challenging to make informed decisions.

This is where Shaan Joshi’s expertise comes into play. With years of experience and a profound understanding of the Auckland real estate market, he has helped numerous sellers navigate the complexities of property sales successfully. Shaan will not only provide you with an accurate appraisal of your property’s worth but also offer valuable advice on how to maximise its potential in the current market.

By enlisting Shaan’s help, you can confidently embark on your property-selling journey, knowing that you have a skilled professional by your side. His in-depth knowledge of the local property landscape allows him to pinpoint the most competitive strategy and method for your property, ensuring you get the best possible returns. Additionally, you can avoid unnecessary stress and costly mistakes often made by inexperienced sellers.

Take the first step towards a rewarding property sale by reaching out to Shaan today to schedule your FREE property appraisal. Don’t miss this chance to gain a comprehensive understanding of your property’s market value and position it for success in the competitive Auckland real estate market.

With Shaan’s expert appraisal, you’ll be equipped with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions throughout the selling process. This empowers you to price your property competitively, attract potential buyers, and negotiate confidently.

Shaan Joshi is so confident in his ability to help you achieve a successful property result, you can rest assured that your property sale is in capable hands, backed by his extensive experience and commitment to client satisfaction.

Selling your Auckland property doesn’t have to be an intimidating experience. With Shaan Joshi’s FREE property appraisal service, you can embark on your selling journey with confidence and clarity.

Say goodbye to uncertainty and let an experienced professional guide you towards a successful property sale.

Contact Shaan Joshi today and take the first step towards unlocking the true potential of your property.

SHAAN JOSHI, 021 612 120